The Unkind Future of Mr Kind (Gentiloni)

Mr Gentiloni (Mr Kind), the newly sworn in Italian Prime Minister,  is a well respected former journalist and experienced politician. Yet, despite his name, he will likely oversee to a period of turbulent political and economic tensions. I give the TROIKA scenario , defined by high political instability, capital flights, rising bonds spread and possible […]

The Consensus for The Letta Government Is Crumbling

The consensus for the Letta government is crumbling. Political shocks are adding to paralysis and economic stagnation. Shocks On July 30th the Supreme Court (Corte di Cassazione) will have the last say on Berlusconi’s recourse against the Appeal Court which sentenced the ex Prime Minister to four years in prison and to a five/three years […]

Intervista su Letta al Wirtshafts Woche

Mia intervista a Wirtshafts Woche sulle prospettive del Governo e dell’Italia (in tedesco) qui sotto la traduzione di Google Translate ________________________ Decisione nel mese di agosto a temere i pazienti italianiJulius Müller-MeiningenL’Italia è nella peggiore recessione dalla Seconda guerra mondiale. Non sembra come se il paese perché crea fuori per il prossimo futuro. E se […]

The Roots of the Italian Stagnation

On May 8, I spoke at the Conference on Italy’s Challenges in the Midst of the Euro Crisis  organized in Rome by the Italian Treasury and  the Bruegel Research Center. My session was about “Short/medium run issues: fiscal adjustment and internal devaluation“. I discussed the Italian competitivess gap. This is what I said .

Nouriel on how the Germans see us..

Nouriel Roubini e Brunello Rosa ,  re-posted from Like everybody, Germany was surprised by the Italian election; it had hoped a coalition of the incumbent prime minister, Mario Monti, and center-left leader, Pier Luigi Bersani, could run Italy and continue pursuing “Plan A.” In all likelihood, such an outcome would have led to Italy […]

The Monti Legacy

Today I gave a talk at the Conference RENCONTRES ECONOMIQUES 2012 “L’ajustement des déséquilibres en zone euro” at the Ministry of Finance in Paris. I discussed the legacy of the Monti government, the positive and negative aspects of the economic reforms,  and some implications of the current governmernt crisis. I was very surprised to see […]

The Probability Of A “Monti-Bis” Takes A Hit

The victory of Pierluigi Bersani in the primary elections for the leadership of the Democratic Party in Italy reduces the chances of the Monti Agenda. In September I discussed in Economonitor the plausibility of a “Monti bis”, the possibility that the next Italian government will carry forward the ‘”Monti Agenda” of budgetary discipline and structural […]

Lost in Translation (from Polish)

 Non riesco a capire il senso di questo articolo che cita il mio lavoro con Luca Zavalloni! _________________________________ Autore: Rafal WosArticoli: Gazzetta Giornale legale(da,wos_niemcy_i_recesja_byc_moze.html ) Questa storia non poteva durare per sempre. Germania, che ha grandi economie occidentali di fronte alla crisi, sono sulla soglia della recessione. Questo è un motivo di tristezza o […]

Paris Slides on Monti and Growth

My previous article on Monti “survival” possibilities (see here or on Nouriel’s website) was based on a presentation that I gave at a meeting organized by Cheuvreux, a French broker, in Paris on September 17. There, I summarized Monti ‘s reforms, the state of their implementation and the likely effects on Italy’s GDP. Finally, I […]