Mr Gentiloni (Mr Kind), the newly sworn in Italian Prime Minister, is a well respected former journalist and experienced politician. Yet, despite his name, he will likely oversee to a period of turbulent political and economic tensions. I give the TROIKA scenario , defined by high political instability, capital flights, rising bonds spread and possible […]
Intervista su Renzi
Qui la mia intervista al giornalista Julius Müller-Meiningen uscita oggi sul quotidiano Augsburger Allgemeine. Parlo di Renzi e della situazione italiana (in tedesco, sorry)
The Curse of Low Interest Rates
Low nominal interest on government bonds are good news, in that they slow down the dynamics of public debt and encorage spending. Thus the recent auction of one-year government bonds (BOT) where the Italian Treasury was able to sell 7 billion worth of paper at a yield of 0.279%, down from the previous record low […]
Amico di Angela?
Questo è come viene riportato il mio paper dal The Globe and the Mail :beh, difficile darl loro torto..
The Consensus for The Letta Government Is Crumbling
The consensus for the Letta government is crumbling. Political shocks are adding to paralysis and economic stagnation. Shocks On July 30th the Supreme Court (Corte di Cassazione) will have the last say on Berlusconi’s recourse against the Appeal Court which sentenced the ex Prime Minister to four years in prison and to a five/three years […]
Intervista su Letta al Wirtshafts Woche
Mia intervista a Wirtshafts Woche sulle prospettive del Governo e dell’Italia (in tedesco) qui sotto la traduzione di Google Translate ________________________ Decisione nel mese di agosto a temere i pazienti italianiJulius Müller-MeiningenL’Italia è nella peggiore recessione dalla Seconda guerra mondiale. Non sembra come se il paese perché crea fuori per il prossimo futuro. E se […]
Italy’s challenges in the midst of the euro-crisis
The slides of the presentations made at the Italian Treasuty’s 8/5 seminar on Italy’s challenges in the midst of the euro-crisis , including mine, can be found here The text of my presentation is here
The Roots of the Italian Stagnation
On May 8, I spoke at the Conference on Italy’s Challenges in the Midst of the Euro Crisis organized in Rome by the Italian Treasury and the Bruegel Research Center. My session was about “Short/medium run issues: fiscal adjustment and internal devaluation“. I discussed the Italian competitivess gap. This is what I said .
Renzi candidato Premier?
Qui a fianco riporto la risposta che, si dice, Matteo Renzi avrebbe dato a quanti hanno avanzato la sua candidatura a primo ministro, prima di essere diventeto segretario del PD
Nouriel on how the Germans see us..
Nouriel Roubini e Brunello Rosa , re-posted from roubini.com Like everybody, Germany was surprised by the Italian election; it had hoped a coalition of the incumbent prime minister, Mario Monti, and center-left leader, Pier Luigi Bersani, could run Italy and continue pursuing “Plan A.” In all likelihood, such an outcome would have led to Italy […]
Professor Monti and the Bubble
Here is my Voxeu piece on Monti, Credibility and Spreads (written with Luca Zavalloni and Giulio Trigilia), as promised.
Politicians, Deficits and Debt
Two nice graphs. One from Angry Bear showing the US deficit/GDP ratio associated with US Presidents since Nixon. The other from Bloomberg last year, before Monti, depicting the Italian public debt in per capita terms, at constant 2011 prices. Comments redundant
On Foreign Affairs (re-post)
About one year ago I wrote a piece for Foreign Affairs, entitled “Can Mario Monti rescue Italy”. With the benefit of hindsight I think it still makes an interesting reading.
The Monti Legacy
Today I gave a talk at the Conference RENCONTRES ECONOMIQUES 2012 “L’ajustement des déséquilibres en zone euro” at the Ministry of Finance in Paris. I discussed the legacy of the Monti government, the positive and negative aspects of the economic reforms, and some implications of the current governmernt crisis. I was very surprised to see […]
The Probability Of A “Monti-Bis” Takes A Hit
The victory of Pierluigi Bersani in the primary elections for the leadership of the Democratic Party in Italy reduces the chances of the Monti Agenda. In September I discussed in Economonitor the plausibility of a “Monti bis”, the possibility that the next Italian government will carry forward the ‘”Monti Agenda” of budgetary discipline and structural […]
Italy SpA: Looking to the Future
Tomorrow afternoon I we be at the ” Italy Conference ” organized by Euromoney , talking about “Italy SpA: Looking to the Future” . Here is the Conference program Enter your email address: Delivered by FeedBurner
Lost in Translation (from Polish)
Non riesco a capire il senso di questo articolo che cita il mio lavoro con Luca Zavalloni! _________________________________ Autore: Rafal WosArticoli: Gazzetta Giornale legale(da http://forsal.pl/artykuly/649609,wos_niemcy_i_recesja_byc_moze.html ) Questa storia non poteva durare per sempre. Germania, che ha grandi economie occidentali di fronte alla crisi, sono sulla soglia della recessione. Questo è un motivo di tristezza o […]
Paris Slides on Monti and Growth
My previous article on Monti “survival” possibilities (see here or on Nouriel’s website) was based on a presentation that I gave at a meeting organized by Cheuvreux, a French broker, in Paris on September 17. There, I summarized Monti ‘s reforms, the state of their implementation and the likely effects on Italy’s GDP. Finally, I […]