About a couple of weeks ago I argued that the “crash scenario” of Italian yelds going through the roof, because of a a fall of the Letta government plus inconclusive elections, was reasonably estimated at 52%. As centre-right ministers have now threatend to resign collectively as soon as Berlusconi is banned from Parliament, the bad […]
The Probability of An Italian Crash
How likely is it that the forcoming decision of the Parliamentary Committe to ban Berlusconi from the Senate will lead to a crisis with a strong rise in Italian yields? In my opinion the probability is today slightly above 50%. Rather than on the survival of the Letta government, however, the likelihood of a rise […]
Il Professor Monti e la Bolla
di Paolo Manasse, Giulio Trigilia e Luca Zavalloni (traduzione da voxeu.org) Le recenti elezioni italiane hanno dato alla luce un parlamento “in bilico”, con un elettorato quasi ugualmente suddiviso tra il centro-sinistra di Bersani, il centro-destra di Berlusconi ed il nuovo Movimento 5 stelle di Beppe Grillo. Scelta Civica, il partito di Mario Monti, ha […]
Professor Monti and the Bubble
Here is my Voxeu piece on Monti, Credibility and Spreads (written with Luca Zavalloni and Giulio Trigilia), as promised.
Moody’s Moods (on Italy)
In a recent report on the Euro Area Periphery, the rating agency Moody’s makes the point that the implementation of structural reforms by the euro area’s periphery countries have achieved improvements, although have not yet fully resolved the external imbalances that developed in these countries prior to the crisis. The report also says that the […]
A Spread Fixing Scheme: Monti’s Pyrrhic Victory?
from voxeu.org Together with Mario Balotelli, Mario Monti was heralded in Italy for bashing Germany at the recent EU Summit. In the latter case, the satisfaction stemmed for achieving an explicit mandate for the EFSF/ESM to “stabilize” yields differentials by intervening in the primary and secondary market. Yet , as in the case of Italy’s ephemeral […]
Spreads: Brevi Risposte a Domande Difficili
Un’altra giornata drammatica sui mercati finanziari ha visto salire la differenza tra il rendimento dei BTP egli analoghi titoli decennali tedeschi (lo spread) al record di 5,75 punti d’interesse, con i BOT a due anni, al 7,5% per cento, che oramai rendono più dei BOT a dieci anni, 7,48%. Cerchiamo di capire 1) cosa significa […]