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Paolo Manasse
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Italian government

Italian Crash: An Update

Italian Crash: An Update

| 27 Settembre 201322 Aprile 2016

About a couple of weeks ago I argued that the “crash scenario” of Italian yelds going through the roof, because of a a fall of the Letta government plus inconclusive elections, was reasonably estimated at  52%. As centre-right ministers have now threatend to resign collectively as soon as Berlusconi is banned from Parliament, the bad […]

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Senza categoriacrisis Italian Elections Italian government Letta spreads
The Probability of An Italian Crash

The Probability of An Italian Crash

| 10 Settembre 201322 Aprile 2016

How  likely is it that the forcoming decision of the Parliamentary Committe to ban Berlusconi from the Senate will lead to a crisis with a strong rise in Italian yields? In my opinion  the probability is today slightly above 50%.  Rather than on the survival of the Letta government, however, the likelihood of a rise […]

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Senza categoriaBerlusconi crisis Italian government Letta spreads
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Paolo Manasse

Professor of Economics
Economics Department, University of Bologna

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