About a couple of weeks ago I argued that the “crash scenario” of Italian yelds going through the roof, because of a a fall of the Letta government plus inconclusive elections, was reasonably estimated at 52%. As centre-right ministers have now threatend to resign collectively as soon as Berlusconi is banned from Parliament, the bad […]
Italian government
The Probability of An Italian Crash
How likely is it that the forcoming decision of the Parliamentary Committe to ban Berlusconi from the Senate will lead to a crisis with a strong rise in Italian yields? In my opinion the probability is today slightly above 50%. Rather than on the survival of the Letta government, however, the likelihood of a rise […]