Tyler Cowen points to a Telegraph article that reproduces the graph on the side. From the second half of 2009 the monetary aggregate M1 (currency in circulation and demand deposits) went from an annual growth rate close to 14% ro – 3% in 2011, dragging M2 (which also includes saving deposits) and M3 (which includes […]
italy
Welcome to Euritaly
(by Paolo Manasse and Giulio Trigilia) Since the financial crisis began in 2008, economists have been warning of a nightmare scenario, one that is now unfolding in the European Union: a domino effect, as the economies of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy (the PIIGS, as they’ve come to be known) collapse. Yet most observers […]
Berlusconi: Will his fall bring down or save the Euro?
(forthcoming in Foreign Affairs) Since the onslaught of the 2008 financial crisis, many economists had been forewarning the EU nightmare scenario now unfolding: a slow but inescapable domino effect as the economies of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy (the PIGS, or PIIGS for the Italy-pessimists) collapsed. Yet most observers got the ordering wrong: the […]
Italian Spreads: Quick answers to tough questions
(this column was written for the Metro italian daily edition) In another day of drama in the financial markets the spread between 10years BTPs and German Bunds rose to the record (since the Euro) high, 575 points, with the 2years yields on BOTs reaching 7.5 % percent, higher than the 10 year Treasury bills, 7.48%. Let’s […]
On the Wall Street Journal
interesting article by Alen Mattich quoting my post
Berlusconi: What’s Next?
Berlusconi: What’s Next? Mr. Berlusconi failed to reach the majority of 316 votes in the House of Deputies, stopping at 308, while the Final Report on the 2010 Budget was approved thanks to the abstention of the opposition. These are in my opinion, the most likely scenarios. Berlusconi, after the meeting with President Napolitano, insists […]
From Brazil
article on Exame
Family Business
It seems to me quite revealing that the traditional “family reunion” at Berlusconi’s on Monday, usually dedicated to the family as well to the health status of the family business, saw the participation, in addition to Marina and Piersilvio Berlusconi, of the chairman of Mediaset, Mr Confalonieri, of Mr Ermolli, a financial consultant, and of Mr Ghidini, […]
Berlusconi and Credibility (Vox Update)
Finally, Berlusconi’s time seems to be over. A slow but seemingly unstoppable landslide of rightwing MPs to the centre-left opposition is making very likely that next Tuesday the government will lose its majority in a crucial Parliamentary vote on the Stability Law. The Prime Minister may even resign before the vote. Not just for avoiding […]
“Italianize” the Debt?
In an commendable effort to contribute to solve the Nation’s crisis, Mr Melani, a private citizen, bought a space on the Corriere della Sera to lunch a national appeal “for Italians to Buy Italian Government Bonds”. In order to evaluate the proposal, it is useful to remember a few facts. According to the Bank of […]
On Seeking Alpha
Interesting discussion on Italian solvency here
Mario Draghi Policy Agenda
It’s interesting to note that in the summary of yesterday press conference Mario Draghi not only explained the reasons for lowering the key ECB rates by one quarter (slow growth, basically), but explicitely reiterated the ECB policy agenda: fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, particular in labor and product markets, competition in services, liberalizations in closed professions […]
Spaghetti and Guns
The irresponsible words of the Mr Sacconi, the Italian Welfare Minister, see below, recall the age of terrorism, when Police Commisioner Calabresi was assasinated, 1972, and labor lawyers Marco D’Antona, 1999, and Marco Biagi, 2002, were killed by terrorists. They paint an international image of Italy similar to that described by the famous cover of […]
Zombie Economists
In these Halloween days, I have realized that most Italian “Zombie Economists” have suddenly disappeared from sight. By ZEs I mean those economists who, due to sheer incompetence or political opportunism, have been praising Mr Berlusconi and Mr Tremonti for having “safeguarded” our public balance, arguing that Italian banks were safe, that private wealth and […]
Credibility is not everything
(From VoxEu) Many observers of the European debt crisis have embraced the idea that the dangers, in particular the risk of default of Italy, lies in the possibility of “multiple equilibria”. According to this view (1) when economic fundamentals, such as the debt GDP ratio and the primary balance, are neither “sufficiently good” as to […]
Interview with Dutch TV
At Nieuwssuur, on 27/10/2011
La credibilità non è tutto
Molti osservatori della crisi europea del debito hanno sposato per l’Italia la tesi degli “equilibri multipli”. Secondo questa tesi (1) quando le variabili economiche si collocano a livelli “intermedi” tra quelli necessari ad assicurare la solvibilità e quelli che invece implicano l’ insolvenza tout court, allora entrano in gioco le aspettative di mercato, con esiti […]
The Economics of Economics Blogs
My article on voxeu.org and roubini,com
From Finland…
Articolo/intervista su Arvopaperi
Berlusconi nel “Chart of the Day”
(con mia intervista) Italian Debt Surged the Most Under Berlusconi: Chart of the Day Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) — Italy’s public debt surged more than twice as much under Silvio Berlusconi than under his rival premiers since the media tycoon entered politics 17 years ago. The CHART OF THE DAY shows that Berlusconi, who has served […]