Early Warnings of Italian Banking Crisis

Tyler Cowen points to a  Telegraph article that reproduces the graph on the side. From the second  half of 2009 the monetary aggregate M1 (currency in circulation and demand deposits) went from an annual growth rate close to 14% ro – 3% in 2011, dragging M2  (which also includes saving deposits) and M3 (which includes including repurchase agreements, money market funds and securities with maturity up to two years). As the currency in circulation increased a little (see details here), the fall of M1 is entirely due to bank deposits. This is a worrying early warning for banking crisis (and the risk of a recession) that the ECB should not to underestimate.