The EU new fiscal flexibility guidelines: an assessment

On January 13, the European Commission issued new  guidelines, to the European Parliament, the EU Council, the ECB, the EIB, the Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, for “making the best use of the flexibility within the existing rules of the Stability and Growth Pact” (SGP). The report underlines that the […]

Europe et Crise del L’Euro

This summer I took part in the ” Rencontres Économiques d’Aix-en-Provence 2012″ , a one week-full-immersion event full of panels and discussions organized by the French “Cercle des Economistes” , featuring important  policy-makers (Moscovici, Trichet, Monti, Giscard D’Estaing) and economists (Roubini, Aghion, and many others) . I took part in Session 4 on “Europe et […]

Contagion? What Contagion?

The Greek bankruptcy (happened already with the debt restructuring), the ungovernability of the country sanctioned by the polls, and the prospect of exit from the Euro, evoke the specter of “contagion”. The fear shaking markets, governments as well as depositors, is that the precipitation of the Greek crisis will cause a crack on a continental […]

A Brighter Future? A Global Poll

Table 1 Dukascopy, a Swiss Forex Bank, runs  a monthly Survey on Global and Regional Economic Developments by asking a panel of  international “experts” and researchers (including myself) based in several Universities around the world (*),  how they see developments in EU, US&Canada and Asia. Numbers below 0.5 mean negative outlooks (0 being the worse) […]

Euro Gloom

A few weeks ago, I was asked by a Swiss Bank, Dukascopy how I evaluated the prospects of the US, Europe, and the Asia.Pacific region. Based on a survey of 30 “experts” (whose identity I obviously ignore)  here are the results for the next 6 months.In short,  a value above 0.5 is “good” and below […]

Lessons For/From the European & Italian Debt Crisis

Foto Lo’ Savorelli 1.How Do Epidemics Spread? 2.What are the Sources of Vulnerabilities in Europe? 3.Interdependence or Contagion ? 4.Italy and Europe: Contagion or Home Made? 5.Italy: Credibility or Fundamentals? 6.European Institutions: What Reform? Those interested in these questions will find here my presentation (in English) at the Conference “Dialogues on the Crisis and Growth“, […]

Euro Pillole: Come (Non) Salvare L’Europa

(da la, 13/12/2011) Le conclusioni del Consiglio europeo del 9 dicembre, fatte proprie dai paesi dell’Unione con l’eccezione della Gran Bretagna, rappresentano la vittoria delle posizioni tedesche e segnano una linea di continuità rispetto al rafforzamento del Patto di Stabilità e Crescita, sancito nel cosiddetto patto EuroPlus. Presupposto di questo rafforzamento è l’idea che […]

Italy: Time Is (Not) On Our Side

(Paolo Manasse and Giulio Trigilia,, 19//2011) Imagine that you lent some money to an hypothetical country, let’s call it I + – + y (with no loss of generality), whose vulnerabilities have long been known: stagnant total factor productivity,  high debt,  an inclination for fiscal deficits,  a level of tax compliance in line with […]

Investors jump ship as Europe faces perfect storm (Interview with F Canepa, S&P)

After two volatile weeks, European bourses are back to the depressed levels recorded before the approval of an international aid package for Greece. Measures taken by the EU-IMF to rescue the Mediterranean country have failed to reassure investors. Moreworryingly still, the crisis exposed a lack of cohesion among European countries. As more clouds gather on […]