The Macroeconomics of the European Crisis

Today I gave a  (long) talk at the Conference on Sovereign Risk and the Euro. The presentation, The Macroeconomics of the European Crisis, went through the crisis’ common causes (current account imbalances), the heterogeneous labor market outcomes, and sovereign debt vulnerabilities to political risk. Those interested in the presentation can download  it here

The Italian Banks’ Bail-out: A Deafening Silence

What are the main lessons from the Italian bail-out of the two Veneto region’s banks ? At the European level, the bail-out is a nail in the coffin of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), as it shows that European rules for protecting tax-payers can be easily circumvented. It creates a precedent that does not […]

Proportional Rules and Troika Risk

In a December 2016 post I discussed the likelihood of Italy falling back into chaotic political instability, capital flights, rising bond spreads and bank runs (TROIKA scenario). I argued that much would depend how the Gentiloni government would manage the hot potato of the new electoral rules, the troika scenario being more likely if  a proportional system […]

L’Europa a 5 Stelle

In occasione delle celebrazioni per il 60 anno dalla firma del trattato di Roma di fondazione della Comunità Europea il Movimento 5 Stelle  ha pubblicato il Libro a 5 Stelle dei Cittadini per l’Europa . Questo contiene il progetto con cui il Movimento intende “cambiare radicalmente le politiche europee” . Il documento è di agevole lettura: escludendo gli […]

The “Troika Risk” and Democratic Party Break-up

The gloomy saga of Renzi’s Democratic Party (PD) is slowly but inexorably ending in a split. While it is not easy to resist the temptation to shrug this off is as yet another pathetic episode of the long history of the party’s obsessive masochism, the possible economic consequences of the “schism” should not be underestimated. […]