Proportional Rules and Troika Risk

In a December 2016 post I discussed the likelihood of Italy falling back into chaotic political instability, capital flights, rising bond spreads and bank runs (TROIKA scenario). I argued that much would depend how the Gentiloni government would manage the hot potato of the new electoral rules, the troika scenario being more likely if  a proportional system […]

The “Troika Risk” and Democratic Party Break-up

The gloomy saga of Renzi’s Democratic Party (PD) is slowly but inexorably ending in a split. While it is not easy to resist the temptation to shrug this off is as yet another pathetic episode of the long history of the party’s obsessive masochism, the possible economic consequences of the “schism” should not be underestimated. […]

What Happens if the Yes Wins at the Referendum

Most national and international observers have focused on the domestic and international consequences of  a possible NO victory, currently leading in the polls,  in the Referendum on Constitutional reforms, next Sunday. The list features: political instability, a possible resignation of Renzi to be replaced by a transitional “technocratic” government and leading to new elections, a […]

Renmenthal: Le Slides di Bilancio con i Buchi

Brutta genìa, gli economisti. Appena ti sparano dei numeri, ti prende l’irresistibile compulsione di fare somme e sottrazioni per vedere se i conti tornano (se le cifre, come si dice in inglese, “add up”). Le slides presentate dal Primo Ministro, sono, sotto questo profilo, molto , molto lacunose: presentano conti che non tornano (si spera […]